Democrats’ disaster scenario: Lawmakers despondent over “sickening” Virginia ruling

AXIOS·1d ago·4 min read

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House Democrats fell into a state of anguish on Friday after the Virginia Supreme Court struck down a congressional map that would have netted them as many as four seats in the 2026 midterm elections.Why it matters: The decision is a huge boost to Republicans' chances of keeping the House in November, with even some Democrats acknowledging they basically need to run the table in November to win now."Damn, California and Virginia were supposed to be our bigger ones," one House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to avoid getting out ahead of their leadership, said in a phone interview after the ruling was released."This means we gotta make sure we have a good wave to win the House … we have to make sure we win a lot of those toss-ups," the lawmaker said. "Democrats now have to pitch a perfect game."Another House Democrat, also speaking on the condition of anonymity, offered a one-word reaction in a text message to Axios: "F*****ck!!"A spokesperson for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) said in a statement, "This is a setback that sends a terrible message to Americans – the powerful and elite will do everything they can to silence you.Driving the news: The Virginia Supreme Court overturned the results of an April referendum that temporarily suspended the state's independent redistricting commission.Democrats had been aiming to implement maps that would turn their party's current 6-5 edge in the state's U.S. House delegation into a 10-1 advantage as a way to counter GOP redistricting in Texas and elsewhere.The ruling gives Republicans a decisive edge in the mid-decade redistricting war. GOP state lawmakers are moving to gerrymander a slew of Southern states based on a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court weakening the Voting Rights Act."Obviously it's not good news and, coupled with the Voting [Rights] Act decision, it shows that the manipulation that may impact November may be on the Republican side now," a third House Democrat told Axios."It's going to be deflating for some, but really it's just a reminder that we are not invincible," said a fourth House Democrat. "We have felt so much momentum that it starts to feel like you can't lose and this should be a wake-up call to Democrats that we still have a lot of work ahead of us.""Democrats cannot take a midterm victory for granted," said a fifth, adding that "relying too much on the administration's unpopularity and not enough of their own positive agenda could put an otherwise sure victory at risk."Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) called the ruling "sickening" and said it is "clearly a disappointment."The intrigue: The ruling even has some lawmakers questioning the wisdom of Democrats spending $62.5 million to push the Virginia redistricting referendum — including nearly $40 million from Jeffries-aligned 501(c)4 House Majority Forward."I feel like this is a colossal waste of resources that will further erode our politics," a sixth House Democrat told Axios, referring to the entire nationwide redistricting battle."How many millions of dollars are we spending on this when the DNC is in debt and we have 40 frontline races to win?"Yes, but: Many Democrats are still optimistic their party can win a big enough wave in November to overcome what is now a daunting structural disadvantage."Trump will still have to deal with a Democratic majority in the House come November," Veasey said.Said Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.): "In spite of all the redistricting machinations, I think we will take back the House."The bottom line: This may still be a lose-lose for Jeffries, with even lawmakers who are optimistic about retaking the House acknowledging he will likely have — at best — an agonizingly narrow majority."Everybody will exert their pressure," the first House Democrat said.Just ask House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) how much fun that has been for him.