Campaigns pay the price for America’s secular shift

America's fastest-growing religious group is also one of the hardest — and costliest — to reach: the "nones."Why it matters: Religiously unaffiliated Americans now make up a large and growing share of the electorate. But without church-based networks, they're significantly more expensive for campaigns to reach and mobilize."Nones" are geographically and socially dispersed.Campaigns must rely on costly digital ads, canvassing and persuasion to reach them.By the numbers: A record 29% of Americans now identify as religiously unaffiliated — the largest single religious cohort, surpassing Catholics (19%) and evangelical Protestants (23%), per Pew Research Center.Among Gen Z, it's even higher: Roughly 4 in 10 adults ages 18–29 are unaffiliated, according to the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI).About one-third of Democrats and independents identify as nonreligious, vs. roughly 13% of Republicans, per PRRI.Zoom in: In some of the country's most secular regions — including Seattle, Portland and parts of New England — "nones" now rival or exceed Christians as a share of the population.Colorado's large unaffiliated population has also pushed campaigns toward issue-based appeals — like abortion rights, climate and housing — over faith-based messaging.Yes, but: Not all "nones" are alike — they include "spiritual but not religious" voters, atheists and agnostics.The broader unaffiliated group is less likely to vote than religious Americans when controlling for age and education, previous studies show.But atheists and agnostics — a more engaged subset — are about 30% more likely to turn out than the average religious voter.Friction point: Campaigns spent about $1.40 per nonreligious voter versus roughly 45 cents per religiously affiliated voter in 2024, Sisto Abeyta, a Democratic consultant with the Nevada-based firm TriStrategies, tells Axios.Candidates can reach through existing mailing lists or megachurch coffee shops, Abeyta said. Nonreligious voters, however, have to be sought."For religious voters, all I have to do is send a mailer and say I believe in God and apple pie," Abeyta said. "For nonreligious voters, I need to send a list of issues with links so they can verify and be ready for questions. It's time-consuming and costs more."Yes, but: "When a candidate includes 'people of no faith,' that spreads like wildfire," Steven Emmert, executive director of the Secular Coalition for America, tells Axios.Emmert argues that secular voters are often highly engaged and quick to respond when candidates simply acknowledge them.Zoom out: The rise of the "nones" reflects a broader decline in traditional civic institutions — from churches to labor unions — that once made political organizing cheaper and easier.As those networks fade, campaigns increasingly have to buy attention through ads and outreach.This forces democracy into a pay-to-play model where only the most well-funded campaigns can afford to "buy" the attention of the unattached.The bottom line: As the "nones" grow, campaigns face a paradox: a key voting bloc that's harder — and more expensive — to mobilize.

America's fastest-growing religious group is also one of the hardest — and costliest — to reach: the "nones."Why it matters: Religiously unaffiliated Americans now make up a large and growing share of the electorate. But without church-based networks, they're significantly more expensive for campaigns to reach and mobilize."Nones" are geographically and socially dispersed.Campaigns must rely…

America's fastest-growing religious group is also one of the hardest — and costliest — to reach: the "nones."Why it matters: Religiously unaffiliated Americans now make up a large and growing share of the electorate. But without church-based networks, they're significantly more expensive for campaigns to reach and mobilize."Nones" are geographically and socially dispersed.Campaigns must rely on costly digital ads, canvassing and persuasion to reach them.By the numbers: A record 29% of Americans now identify as religiously unaffiliated — the largest single religious cohort, surpassing Catholics…