Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be milder than normal thanks to El Nino

A woman and child crosses a flooded street due to Typhoon Fung-wong and high tide on Nov. 10, 2025, in Navotas, Philippines. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila, File)2026-05-21T15:24:30Z A developing El Nino that is forecast to get quite strong will likely dampen the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, but it won’t make the potentially deadly storms disappear, federal and outside meteorologists predict.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday issued its seasonal outlook for the Atlantic, giving a 55% chance of a below-average season. The agency forecasts eight to 14 named storms, with three to six of them becoming strong enough to hit hurricane status and one to three of those intensifying to major hurricanes.A normal hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven of them becoming hurricanes and three of them reaching major hurricane level, which is more than 110 mph (177 kph). Eighteen other groups, private and academic, have also forecasted what they think the season will be like and most of them also call for a below average summer and fall. Those other forecasts average a dozen named storms, only five becoming hurricanes and two of those being major ones. Those forecasts also call for the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, which takes into account strength and duration of storms, to be 80% of normal. Residents walk through Santa Cruz, Jamaica, Oct. 29, 2025, after Hurricane Melissa passed. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix, File) Residents walk through Santa Cruz, Jamaica, Oct. 29, 2025, after Hurricane Melissa passed. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix, File) –> Add AP News on Google Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google. –> Share Share Facebook Copy Link copied Print Email X LinkedIn Bluesky Flipboard Pinterest Reddit Read More Colorado State University, which pioneered the science of hurricane seasonal forecasting in 1984, is predicting the lowest overall activity since 2015, which was the strongest El Nino in the last 75 years. And that forecast is likely to be revised to even lower numbers in June, said Colorado State’s hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach. This is after nine of the last 10 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above normal or even hyperactive, Klotzbach said. Last year started slow, but then had a burst, producing a near-record total of three Category 5 hurricanes, including Melissa which devastated Jamaica and Cuba, said Suzana Camargo, a climate scientist and tropical weather expert at Columbia University.Inflation-adjusted damage across the globe from tropical cyclones has increased from an average of $11.4 billion a year in the 1980s to $109.7 billion a year over the past 10 years, with three-quarters of the damage done in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, according to insurance giant Munich Re. Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are the same weather event, with the different names being used in different parts of the world. Read More “We should expect a less active year than certainly what we’ve seen recently, and perhaps significantly so below average,” said University at Albany atmospheric scientist Kristen Corbosiero. “But again, it only takes one to cause real devastation and destruction in the mainland U.S. or even in Hawaii.”El Nino decapitates Atlantic storms People bike past damaged homes and debris left by Hurricane Milton, on the sand-coated main road of southern Manasota Key, already cleared of feet of sand, in Englewood, Fla., Oct. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File) People bike past damaged homes and debris left by Hurricane Milton, on the sand-coated main road of southern Manasota Key, already cleared of feet of sand, in Englewood, Fla., Oct. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File) –> Add AP News on Google Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google. –> Share Share Facebook Copy Link copied Print Email X LinkedIn Bluesky Flipboard Pinterest Reddit Read More It’s mostly because of “the elephant in the room” which is an El Nino, Camargo said.An El Nino is the natural and cyclic warming of parts of the central Pacific that warps weather patterns around the globe, especially during winter. Scientists for decades have found a correlation between an El Nino and below average Atlantic hurricane activity and stronger and more storms in the central and eastern Pacific. This year many forecasts are calling for a strong, super-strong or even record setting intense El Nino. During a La Nina, the cool flip side of El Nino, the Atlantic is generally busier with stronger storms. There’s a 98% chance that there will be an El Nino this summer and an 80% chance it will be moderate or strong, NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said Thursday.Atlantic hurricane seasons when an El Nino reaches strong or very strong status have two-thirds the named storms and half the hurricanes of the 1991-2020 average, according to an Associated Press analysis of storm and E

A woman and child crosses a flooded street due to Typhoon Fung-wong and high tide on Nov. 10, 2025, in Navotas, Philippines. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila, File)2026-05-21T15:24:30Z A developing El Nino that is forecast to get quite strong will likely dampen the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, but it won’t make the potentially deadly storms disappear, federal…

A woman and child crosses a flooded street due to Typhoon Fung-wong and high tide on Nov. 10, 2025, in Navotas, Philippines. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila, File)2026-05-21T15:24:30Z A developing El Nino that is forecast to get quite strong will likely dampen the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, but it won’t make the potentially deadly storms disappear, federal and outside meteorologists predict.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday issued its seasonal outlook for the Atlantic, giving a 55% chance of a below-average season. The agency forecasts eight…