Which states and products risk the greatest losses if the USMCA is terminated?

The United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement, negotiated in the last year of President Donald Trump's first term in 2020, called for the parties to decide whether to renew its terms by July 1. That deadline will no doubt be missed. Fitful negotiations started earlier this year, indicating fierce disagreements over many issues. Outright termination of the USMCA in the course of the current 6-year review is highly unlikely. But the risk is not zero for the simple reason that Trump is making heavy demands on Canada and Mexico while offering no concessions on US trade barriers. The…